Michael Barone on the Illinois governor scandal. He has the best analysis and background of the situation I have seen so far, and he seems to know far more about Chicago politics than most observers or commentators:

The Blagojevich scandal casts something of a pall on Barack Obama's otherwise pretty impressive and highly popular performance in this transition period. It's a reminder that he's the product of a political system that also produces some very tawdry corruption and official incompetence. And that he has been a get-along, go-along politician himself, taking care never to buck Mayor Daley and even backing the flagrantly unqualified Todd Stroger for Cook County Board president in 2006. It puts another name on the list of prominent Democrats who have been tarred by scandal or accused of scandalous behavior—Eliot Spitzer, Charles Rangel, William Jefferson, Kwame Kilpatrick—at a time when memories of Mark Foley, Bob Ney, and Jack Abramoff are beginning to fade. It will provide continuing headline stories. Will Blagojevich resign? My guess is: no way. Will the legislature take away the power of appointing a senator to fill the Obama vacancy? My sense is: quite quickly. Will there then be, as Illinois Senator Dick Durbin has called for, a special election to fill the seat? My guess is: could well be. In which case it's not entirely clear that the Democrat will win, even in such a heavily Democratic state as Illinois. The nightmare scenario for Democrats is a big primary fight on their side, with the Republican nomination going to North Shore Rep. Mark Kirk, a political moderate with a WASPy clean-government reputation that Illinois voters may find attractive after the Blagojevich scandal. Not likely, perhaps, but possible, and not what the Obama administration will need in its early months.